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Recession now certain, economists say
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Posted by ian 49 days ago (www.marketwatch.com). Views: 36
Tags: recession economy wall street credit crisis |
| Related Tags: finance economics business video forbes housing bubble stocks banks |
Even before the latest squeeze in the credit markets, the U.S. economy had slipped into what could be a relatively lengthy recession, economists say.
The latest data, covering activity in August and September, make it all but certain that the academic economists will eventually declare that the economy is in a recession.
The big economic forecasting firms are in the process of updating their forecasts following the release of key data on consumer spending. While the final numbers aren't available yet, forecasters say it doesn't look good.
The economy seems to be on the "edge of the abyss," said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, which will update its forecast on Friday.
"Anyone who's wondering if there's a recession should stop wondering," said Nigel Gault, U.S. economist for Global Insight, which will release its updated forecast on Monday. "The recent data were deteriorating sharply" even before factoring in the latest impact of the credit squeeze.
Global Insight doesn't think the recovery will be quick or powerful. The economy will likely contract for three quarters and then show weak growth in the second quarter next year.
If the recession lasts from December 2007 until April 2009, as Gault suspects it will, it would be the longest since the Great Depression. And the recovery, when it comes, won't feel anything like a boom.
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